Betting on Insiders

Signal or noise?

Nicolas Rabener
10 min read
22 Dec 2025

SUMMARY

  • Following insider trading is an intuitively appealing investment strategy
  • However, the track record of such funds is abysmal
  • CEOs are as poor at predicting the future as investors

INTRODUCTION

Nancy Pelosi is known for her 38-year-long service to U.S. citizens as a Democratic member of the U.S. Congress, as well as the significant amount of wealth she accumulated during that period. Her official salary as a member of Congress is approximately USD 200,000 per year, yet her joint net worth with her husband amounts to hundreds of millions of dollars.

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