Why Are All Illiquid Alts Outperforming?

Data manipulation is a superpower

February 2022. Reading Time: 10 Minutes. Author: George Aliferis.

This research note is a guest post from George Aliferis, CAIA, who runs InvestOrama, a content platform that explores the future of investing across alternative assets, Defi and technology – but without the hype. 

SUMMARY

• Alternative asset classes like wine, PE, or art have been outperforming the stock market
• However, the performance data is often from the asset managers, which represents a conflict of interest
• Unsurprisingly these indices are sometimes revised and unlikely reliable indicators of realized performance

INTRODUCTION

I’ve been visiting properties. We’ve outgrown our flat (2 young boys!). When we move it will be my biggest investment ever. And technically, it will be an alternative and illiquid asset, although I don’t see it this way.

When considering a new investment, we’ve all seen that “Past performance is not indicative of future results”, but you still want to have a look at historical data. (The UK House Price Index (HPI) is up by 10% – worst time to buy?).

For assets like stocks or cryptocurrencies, data is straightforward. No one needs to explain how the AAPL or Bitcoin chart is created, and it will tell you a lot about the security. You can use the same data series for all sorts of ratios about risk or relative performance.

For property, though the UK HPI uses a regression model. It’s more complicated than a 2-column data series, and there are various models. The UK uses hedonic regression. In the US, it’s ‘repeat-sales’. We need them because properties only trade once every few years, and some never trade.